Don't Look at the Light: A Guide to Surviving a Nuke
Considering the shaky state of international relations and the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and around the world, I thought it'd be a good idea to share some insights from my background in counterintelligence and strategic defense on what to do in case of a nuclear conflict. While I hope it never happens, it's becoming a more plausible outcome every day. If it does happen, it will be a short-lived event, measured in minutes rather than days.
Back in my days in the intelligence community, I used to specialize in thinking through worst-case scenarios. This meant coming up with strategies and countermeasures. To help you understand what to do if things go south, I'm going to lay out what I think could be a likely scenario. This is a purely hypothetical discussion. Everything I'm sharing is info you can find from open sources and is in no way classified.
In this fictitious situation, Russia kicks things off with a surprise attack on the U.S. The first punch is likely to be an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) explosion high up in the atmosphere above the East Coast. If done right, this EMP will fry anything electrical in its line of sight. Cars on the road will suddenly stall, phones will go dead, and all digital gadgets (not protected in something like a faraday cage) will stop working. Power sources like generators, solar panels, and wind turbines won't be immune to the destruction.
The fallout from this attack would be a disaster. Communication for everyone, including the military, would be shot, and anyone reliant on electronic equipment for survival, like folks on life support, would be in serious trouble. Planes would fall from the sky, and life on the East Coast would go back to something akin to the Middle Ages. Even if you survive the initial nuclear strikes, you'd be left grappling with this new reality once the dust settles.
In just a few minutes, the sky would be filled with missiles. Assuming the U.S. gets a heads-up about the incoming EMP, they will use their nukes on targets they already had predetermined. They'd try to coordinate with their submarine forces to launch their missiles for maximum impact. Both sides in this conflict would have to use their entire nuclear arsenal to avoid losing them to the enemy attack.
Now, if you find yourself in or near a city or a military base, your chances of surviving those first nuclear blasts aren't great. In the worst-case scenario, it's possible that all major targets — military bases, known nuclear facilities, key industrial and cultural centers, and government buildings — would be hit all at once.
To keep it simple, I'm assuming the warheads are roughly 300 kilotons, like the W-87 in the U.S. arsenal. If a bomb of this size goes off as an air burst (explodes at a specific height above the ground instead of on impact) in the heart of Washington, D.C., the initial death toll would be over 300,000, with another half a million people injured. I relied on a great simulation from Outrider.org for this exercise, and you can see simulated images below depicting explosions in Washington, D.C., New York City, and Moscow, Russia.
Radiation
The first consequence to consider is radiation. Within milliseconds of the detonation, the bomb releases a lethal combination of gamma rays and neutrons. This type of radiation wreaks havoc on the body at the cellular level. Exposure to excessive levels of radiation in a short span of time leads to a condition known as acute radiation poisoning.
If, by some stroke of luck, anyone survives the initial blast, such as those taking cover in a fortified building or a deep underground shelter within a quarter-mile radius, they won't be spared the torment of radiation poisoning. This condition typically results in an agonizing death within hours to days. The symptoms are harrowing and include a loss of appetite, overwhelming fatigue, fever, nausea, incessant vomiting, hair loss, skin lesions, severe diarrhea, and in the worst cases, seizures and even coma.
Fireball
Within a radius of just 0.43 miles from the detonation point, the fireball generated by a fission bomb, which is a staggering 10,000 times hotter than the sun, would instantaneously vaporize everything and everyone within its perimeter. Regrettably, this is an entirely unavoidable outcome.
If there's any semblance of consolation in this dire scenario, it's that this catastrophic event unfolds within the first millionth of a second after detonation. In other words, for those unfortunate enough to be in the vicinity, there's no time to even comprehend the horror as it transpires. It's a grim reality, but in its swiftness lies a small mercy amidst the overwhelming devastation.
Shockwave
As the fireball expands, it propels the surrounding air at astonishing speeds, giving rise to a formidable shockwave. The point at which the ambient air pressure sharply increases is known as the shock front. This invisible but devastating force of pressure acts like an imperceptible wall, resulting in an immense amount of destruction.
The shockwave's impact is far-reaching, with the ability to level most structures within a 26 mile radius of the explosion. It's important to note that the damage inflicted by the shock front diminishes as it moves farther from the epicenter.
Accompanying this destructive shockwave are hurricane-force winds, and these winds pose some of the most significant risks to people in the affected area. While the human body can withstand rapid changes in pressure and high winds to some extent, anyone within the radius of the blast may suffer injuries caused by collapsing buildings and wind-blown debris. The force of the explosion, combined with these violent winds, creates a perilous environment, making it imperative to seek immediate shelter and protection in the aftermath of a nuclear detonation.
Heat
As mentioned earlier in relation to the fireball, an immense amount of heat is generated during the detonation. Consequently, within a staggering 62 mile radius, the conditions are ripe for spontaneous combustion. Everyday items such as clothing, paper, trees, wooden structures, and plastic materials would catch fire with alarming speed.
Within this expansive radius, both humans and animals would endure the excruciating pain of third-degree burns, a life-threatening injury. Even those located just outside this critical radius wouldn't escape unscathed, as they could suffer severe first or second-degree burns. The ferocity of the heat and its devastating consequences underscore the urgent need for shelter and protection during a nuclear explosion.
Fallout
The initial surface explosion triggers the release of irradiated material, often referred to as fallout, which ascends into the atmosphere forming a distinctive mushroom cloud. If you happen to be in close proximity to the detonation, these sand-like particles can begin descending within just 15 minutes, underscoring the urgency of seeking shelter.
The reach of this fallout is heavily dependent on wind strength and direction. Remarkably, these radioactive particles can be carried vast distances from the explosion site, sometimes settling hundreds of miles away. What makes fallout particularly menacing is its long-lasting presence in the environment, spanning decades.
The threat posed by fallout predominantly stems from the consumption of contaminated food and water sources. Ingesting animals, plants, or water tainted with radiation can lead to severe health issues. It's imperative to avoid such contaminated sources, as the consequences of radiation exposure through ingestion are both persistent and detrimental to human health.
If you find yourself at a safe distance from the blast but still have concerns about potential fallout (which is entirely warranted), there are steps you can take to minimize your exposure.
Potassium iodide plays a crucial role in nuclear events due to the release of radioiodine, which has a tendency to concentrate in the thyroid gland, thereby increasing the risk of thyroid cancer and other related health issues. As a preventive measure, it's advisable for adults aged 18 and older to take a daily dose of 130mg of potassium iodide. Children weighing 150lbs and above can follow the adult dosage.
For children between the ages of 3 and 18, as well as anyone weighing under 150lbs, a daily intake of half the adult dosage, which is 65mg, is recommended. Babies aged 1 month to 3 years can take a quarter of that amount, equal to 32.5mg. For infants from birth to one month, a dosage of 16.25mg is suggested.
Please note that this information does not constitute medical advice, but it is important to consider these guidelines in emergency situations. Many experts recommend taking these tablets for at least a week to reduce the risk associated with exposure to radioiodine.
Reusable Respirator with 2097 filters: While a respirator isn't foolproof, it significantly enhances your protection by filtering out airborne nanoparticles. The particular mask I have is available for $18 on Amazon, and its filters remain effective for approximately 40 hours of continuous use. For optimum safety, it's advisable to wear such a respirator while outdoors for a minimum of 24 hours, extending to a couple of days following a detonation.
If your financial resources allow and you have the means, it's highly recommended to invest in a higher-quality mask for superior filtration and durability. Your choice of mask can play a critical role in safeguarding your respiratory health in a post-detonation environment.
Coveralls: If you find yourself compelled to leave your home for any reason, it's crucial to minimize your time outdoors and take steps to protect yourself. One effective measure is to cover up as much as possible, such as wearing a Tyvek suit over your clothing. This can serve as a barrier to prevent radioactive materials from coming into contact with your skin.
After returning home, it's essential to take specific precautions when removing the suit. Begin by thoroughly cleaning the entire suit with soap and water to ensure any contaminants are washed away. Then, take off the suit, leaving it outside your residence. This method helps to prevent the potential spread of radioactive materials into your living space, reducing your risk of exposure.
Don't look at the light: If you find yourself outside the blast zone but still within sight of the explosion, it's vital not to gaze directly at the intense light. The risk of blinding effects extends up to 50 miles from the detonation site due to the extreme brightness.
In this situation, a safer approach is to immediately lie down on the ground, which can help shield you from potential falling debris. However, it's important to keep your mouth open during this time to prevent your eardrums from bursting due to the abrupt pressure change caused by the blast. Following these precautions can significantly increase your chances of staying safe in the aftermath of a nuclear detonation.
Take a shower: If you happened to be outdoors during the blast and managed to survive, it's imperative to take immediate action to decontaminate yourself. One of the most critical steps is to shower as soon as possible, using hot water. While doing so, it's essential to avoid rubbing your skin too vigorously, as excessive friction could break the skin and potentially increase your exposure to radioactive particles.
It's advisable to thoroughly blow your nose, rinse your eyes, and clean your ears to remove any potential contaminants. However, refrain from using any skin lotions, creams, or moisturizers, as these products often contain ingredients that can bind to radioactive materials. Taking these decontamination measures promptly can significantly reduce the risks associated with radiation exposure.
Get a Geiger counter: Understanding the level of radiation in the air is an important step in minimizing your exposure to harmful radiation. Geiger counters are user-friendly devices that can assist in this task and are readily available for purchase. You can acquire one for as little as $80 from Amazon. These instruments allow you to monitor radiation levels in your surroundings, helping you make informed decisions to safeguard your well-being in the event of a nuclear incident.
Naturally, this list is not exhaustive, but it's a valuable starting point. When it comes to preparing for the uncertainties that follow a nuclear explosion, it's wise to be as well-prepared as possible. One of my recommendations is to have at least three months' worth of food and antibiotics readily available. In times when the world seems to be descending into chaos, staying within the safety of your home can be your best line of defense.
In the coming months, unpredictability and anxiety may be constant companions. It's essential to prioritize your mental health during such trying times. I’ve written at length on mental health and emotional intelligence, with a specific focus on coping with a society in turmoil in my book The Psychology of Collapsing, if you’re interested in checking that out. Strengthening your emotional intelligence equips you with a better chance of navigating this challenging situation and emerging unscathed. Building resilience and emotional strength is a crucial part of your overall preparedness.
Ultimately, your chances of survival hinges primarily on two factors: your proximity to the blast and your knowledge of what to do in the aftermath. While we all hope that such catastrophic events never become a reality, it can be reassuring to equip yourself with the knowledge necessary to improve your chances in case they do. In times of uncertainty, I hope these steps provide you with a fighting chance. May the odds be ever in your favor.